I don’t think there’s any doubt that the most important factor is the NDP vote. If it improves to 13 or 14 per cent then the Tories win. Then there’s turnout. The 2019 Canadian election saw 67 per cent of voters vote. In 2021 it was 62 per cent. Both were minority Trudeau wins, though the Tories won the popular vote both times. If the voter turnout gets over 70 per cent I think the Tories win.
James Allan: Poilievre still in the game to win
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