Michael Kovrig: Germany’s China crisis

Michael Kovrig: That shift is now underway, driven by the sheer scale of the losses. The CLEPA data, the IG Metall discussions, the Bundesbank president’s call for a more “offensive” response, the BDI’s own critical assessments, all represent a genuine, if belated, mobilization of the interests that should have organized far earlier. What remains to be seen is whether this awakening arrives in time to shape policy before the structural opportunity to do so has passed. Industrial ecosystems, once relocated, do not return. Technological gaps, once opened, widen rather than close. The window for effective counter-organization is narrower today than it was five years ago, and it narrows further with every investment decision made in Zhengzhou rather than Stuttgart.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

The CCP does not approach a visiting Western leader the way Western leaders approach each other. It does not ask what they want to discuss. It asks what they need, what they fear, what they can deliver domestically, and how pliable they are likely to be under pressure and inducement. By the time Merzlanded in China, Beijing would have done extensive homework on all four questions. The answers, from the Party’s perspective, were probably encouraging…

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