A little noticed report by the US Congressional Research Service Report says the U.S government deliberately misleads the public about its real objectives in Eurasia, and this includes the war in Ukraine.
According to the report, titled “Renewed Great Power Competition: Implications for Defense—Issues for Congress”:
“U.S. policymakers for the last several decades have chosen to pursue, as a key element of U.S. national strategy, a goal of preventing the emergence of regional hegemons in Eurasia. Although U.S. policymakers do not often state explicitly in public the goal of preventing the emergence of regional hegemons in Eurasia, U.S. military operations in recent decades—both wartime operations and day-to-day operations—appear to have been carried out in no small part in support of this goal.”
The report acknowledges that the U.S government deliberately misleads the public about its real objectives in the Ukraine war. Ukraine occupies a critical location in Eurasia, being situated right on the south-eastern doorstep of Russia. Thus, Ukraine functions as a vital buffer zone for Russia, providing a land space to cut off potential threats, such as invasion. Therefore, what happens in Ukraine is an existential matter for Russia – a legitimate security interest, in diplomatic parlance.
In his book, “Prisoners of Geography”, Tim Marshall explains how geography determines Russia’s policy towards Ukraine. According to Marshall, “The annexation of Crimea showed how Russia is prepared for military action to defend what it sees as its interests in what it calls its ‘near abroad’.”
For the past 8 years, Ukraine had been waging a civil war against its own Russian-speaking population in the Donestk and Luhansk areas located in the south of Ukraine, in a region called the Donbass, which is on the Russia-Ukraine border.
In the days before 24 February last year when the war started, Ukraine had amassed 110,000 troops on the Donbass border that it shares with Russia, sending heavier and heavier artillery fire into the region. Reports from the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission confirm this exponential increase in ceasefire violations by Ukraine in the immediate days preceding the war. So what did that mean?
It was a signal that Ukraine was about to invade Donbass. Previously, Ukraine had signed the Minsk Agreements, pledging to stop attacks and implement a ceasefire in the Donbass. But now, with military help from the US and UK and Neo-nazi battalions such as the Azov regiment, Ukraine was preparing to capture the Donbass. This is the immediate context of why Russia launched what it called a “special military operation” on 24 February, with the stated objective to “de-militarize” and “de-nazify” Ukraine.
Why Ukraine thought it could capture Donbass even though it knew Russia would fight back, and why the US and the UK had been training and sending money to Ukraine for this operation for the past 8 years is connected to the avowed U.S strategy of countering the rise of Russia as a regional hegemon in Eurasia. It is also the key to understanding why US strategy documents repeatedly mention “unprovoked Russian aggression”, as if a narrative had been manufactured in advance for a war that had been planned in advance.
The objectives of the US with regard to Russia and the regional hegemon problem in Eurasia is further confirmed by the U.S 2022 National Security Strategy and the U.S 2022 National Defense Strategy which both explicitly identify Russia as a threat to U.S interests.
The Wolfowitz Doctrine Continued: The 2022 U.S National Security Strategy and the 2022 U.S National Defense Strategy
The U.S strategy of preventing the emergence of a regional hegemon in Eurasia was first articulated in the initial version of the Defense Planning Guidance for the 1994–1999, which was leaked to he New York Times on March 7, 1992. The document was unofficially called the Wolfowitz Doctrine.
Echoing the Wolfowitz doctrine, the 2022 U.S National Security Strategy repeatedly describes Russia as an “immediate and persistent threat”:
“Russia poses an immediate and ongoing threat to the regional security order in Europe and it is a source of disruption and instability globally…”
“Russia now poses an immediate and persistent threat to international peace and stability….”
“Russia poses an immediate threat to the free and open international system, recklessly flouting the basic laws of the international order … This decade will be decisive, in setting the terms of …managing the acute threat posed by Russia…”
The reason why Russia is a threat is explained by the Congressional report “Renewed Great Power Competition”. Russia is a Eurasian country that has the potential to become a regional hegemon and the U.S wants to prevent the emergence of such a regional hegemon in Eurasia:
“The U.S. goal of preventing the emergence of regional hegemons in Eurasia… is a policy choice reflecting two judgments: (1) that given the amount of people, resources, and economic activity in Eurasia, a regional hegemon in Eurasia would represent a concentration of power large enough to be able to threaten vital U.S. interests; and (2) that Eurasia is not dependably self-regulating in terms of preventing the emergence of regional hegemons, meaning that the countries of Eurasia cannot be counted on to be able to prevent, though their own actions, the emergence of regional hegemons, and may need assistance from one or more countries outside Eurasia to be able to do this dependably.”
“From a U.S. perspective on grand strategy and geopolitics, it can be noted that most of the world’s people, resources, and economic activity are located not in the Western Hemisphere, but in the other hemisphere, particularly Eurasia.”
While calling China America’s “pacing” (gathering) challenge and the “most comprehensive and serious challenge to U.S. national security”, the 2022 National Defense Strategy also explicitly identifies Russia as an “acute threat” to U.S interests.
The paper also refers several times to Russia’s “unprovoked” aggression in Ukraine, underlining further that the U.S has “marshalled a strong, unified response to Russia’s attack and proven the strength of NATO’s unity”.
According to the Congressional Research Service report, the real reasons for the war in Ukraine are deliberately concealed from the public, because it is not about “unprovoked Russian aggression” but U.S interests. These interests can be summed up in one objective: to prevent the rise of a regional hegemon in Eurasia that could challenge the global dominance of the U.S. It is what the report says “US policymakers do not often state explicitly in public”:
“Although U.S. policymakers do not often state explicitly in public the goal of preventing the emergence of regional hegemons in Eurasia, U.S. military operations in recent decades—both wartime operations and day-to-day operations—appear to have been carried out in no small part in support of this goal.”
