Beijing’s next play for South China Sea

Lynn Kuok/Foreign Affairs: Individually, China’s quieter acts might seem inconsequential. Collectively, they could alter the strategic landscape. They complicate the calculus of coastal states, which may judge any single Chinese move to be too minor to justify a response that risks escalation. That concern weighs especially heavily as these states face the fallout from the war in the Middle East and sweeping U.S. tariffs, pressures that may force many of them to recalibrate their relationships with Beijing. China’s strategy of consolidating and normalizing control at sea and on land threatens to erode the regional order and weaken the rule of law. Its quieter measures also threaten a key element of U.S. regional strategy. Washington has relied on exposing Beijing’s unlawful and coercive conduct to rally allies and partners behind efforts to uphold the law of the sea and sustain U.S. regional influence. If allies and partners grow less willing or able to push back against China’s advances, that strategy will falter…