Prediction markets face their biggest accuracy test yet: Midterms

New York Times: To attract new users and rake in fees associated with their betting activity, the companies have conducted a marketing blitz. Kalshi rented a giant billboard in Times Square, blaring odds about which party will control the Senate. Polymarket produced a TV spot depicting a failing political campaign with the tagline: “Watch the midterms move.”

…Campaign managers are also beginning to watch prediction markets for signs of how to pivot their messaging…

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