Time: Paparo’s job is to convince Xi that the costs of military action will be too much to bear, regardless of what is happening politically on the island. By act of Congress, the U.S. is obliged to sell Taiwan the weapons it needs for its own defense; while it does not require the U.S. to defend the island directly, the commitment could go further to include direct conflict with China. He describes his mission as a delicate balancing act between ensuring that his counterparts know American capabilities well enough to understand the risks of engaging, and protecting its necessary secrets and strategy. “It’s demonstrating credible combat power, demonstrating capability and will, but keeping the crown jewels of the nation that are going to deliver combat success opaque to your counterparts, so that they can’t build a counter for it,” he says.
Paparo describes the strategy as deterrence by denial. “It’s a way of expressing that we’re not seeking the overthrow of the Communist Party,” he says. “It’s just that you should know that where America’s direct vital interests are involved, there’s a high probability of denying your aggression.”…