Downed US jet, second crash mark new escalation in Iran war. WH Chief of Staff Susie Wiles says aides giving Trump a ‘rose-colored view’ of Iran war

New York Times: U.S. forces were searching on Friday for an American airman who bailed out of a fighter jet over Iran during the first shoot-down of a U.S. warplane by Tehran in five weeks of war, officials said. A second crew member was rescued.

Iran’s military was also searching for the missing American from the destroyed plane, an F-15E Strike Eagle, according to three Iranian officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss military operations…

What We Know About the U.S. Jets That Crashed in the Mideast

On Friday, Iran’s regime offered a reward for the capture of “enemy’s pilot or pilots,” who it said should be turned over alive to security forces, according to a local affiliate of Iran’s state broadcaster…

Downed US Jet, Second Crash Mark New Escalation in Iran War

The developments added to Iran’s stepped-up attacks Friday as the Islamic Republic targeted energy sites in the region hours after President Donald Trump renewed threats against Iranian infrastructure…

Susie Wiles reportedly expressed concerns aides are giving Trump a ‘rose-colored view’ of the Iran war and its impacts

On Thursday, Time reported, citing two White House sources, that Wiles has expressed concern the president is getting “a rose-colored view” of how Americans perceive the Iran war. Wiles has reportedly told staffers to be “more forthright with the boss” about the political and economic risks associated with conflict…

US intelligence assesses Iran maintains significant missile launching capability

Roughly half of Iran’s missile launchers are still intact and thousands of one-way attack drones remain in Iran’s arsenal despite the daily pounding by US and Israeli strikes against military targets over the past five weeks, according to recent US intelligence assessments, three sources familiar with the intel told CNN.

“They are still very much poised to wreak absolute havoc throughout the entire region,” one of the sources said of Iran…

Downed jets puncture Trump’s and Hegseth’s claims of air invulnerability

Neither of these incidents means Iran is suddenly on anything close to an equal footing militarily. And there have thus far been limited American casualties, including no known deaths in the last three weeks.

But in a conflict in which military dominance is the US’ chief advantage, this episode underscores the perils of asymmetric warfare, the costs of which the American public already isn’t buying

Iran Uses Asymmetric Warfare to Inflict Pain From a Weakened Position

Shooting down of American warplanes most striking example of Tehran’s ability to raise cost of war for Washington…

Iran’s Defenses Have Been Struck, but They Can Still Fire Back

the news that Iran had shot down an Air Force F-15E fighter jet on Friday showed that Iran retained the ability to strike back, however degraded.

That ability had been on vivid display in recent weeks as Iran continued to send waves of ballistic missiles and drones at Israel and Gulf states, destroying American aircraft on the ground in Saudi Arabia, injuring around two dozen troops in the process, and on Friday striking a power and water desalination plant in Kuwait…

Former CIA operative: regime change in Iran is much harder than the US thinks

Most serious observers already understand that uncomfortable truth. The prospects for immediate political change in Tehran remain slim. As the scholar Karim Sadjadpour has observed, the Revolutionary Guard and military are seeking to ensure regime survival because it is in their economic interest. Even after military setbacks, the regime’s core instruments of coercion remain intact enough to shape succession and survival…

French-owned container ship and 3 Omani tankers pass through Strait of Hormuz

“What this shows is that the Strait of Hormuz is potentially open to select ships and countries that can strike a deal with Iran,” said Martin Kelly, head of advisory at maritime intelligence group EOS Risk. “It seems Iran is officially implementing a procedure for ships to exit the strait and it’s largely around [denying] the US [transits].”…

Europe must prepare for ‘long-lasting’ energy shock, EU warns

Energy commissioner says bloc is assessing fuel rationing and releasing more oil from strategic reserves…

Macron Criticizes Trump and Calls on Allies to Unite Against US

“Our objective is not to be the vassals of two hegemonic powers,” he told students in Seoul. “We don’t want to depend on the dominance, let’s say on China, or we don’t want to be too much exposed to the unpredictability of the US.”…

US Doubles Hormuz Guarantees to $40 Billion With New Partners

The US is doubling, to $40 billion, its commitment to provide reinsurance guarantees to ships willing to travel through the Strait of Hormuz with the addition of new insurance partners, including AIG and Berkshire Hathaway

Reeling from war in the Middle East, Trump reaches for a reset

An unorthodox president turns to a Cabinet shakeup and a speech to the nation — two of the oldest moves in the presidential playbook — to help with his political dilemma…

The global oil crisis is turning into an everything crisis

The conflict in the Middle East has crimped oil and natural gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz, reducing global supply by about one-fifth. The disruption has not only sent fuel prices soaring, but has squeezed supplies of petrochemicals needed to make everyday items like shoes, clothing and plastic bags.

That strain is now spreading into every corner of the consumer market as prices rise for materials like plastic, rubber and polyester. The impact is so far most evident in Asia, which accounts for more than half of the world’s manufacturing and is heavily reliant on imports for oil and other commodities…

Iranian Strike on U.S. Embassy Caused More Damage Than Disclosed

The nighttime strikes penetrated a secure part of the embassy where several hundred people would have been working in the day and heavily damaged three floors, current and former officials said. The Central Intelligence Agency station was among the areas hit, people familiar with the matter have said…

Trump’s Mission Impossible for Allies: Reopening the Strait of Hormuz

European leaders say forcing the passageway open militarily is unrealistic and more likely to come about through international pressure…

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