Perfect storm for Taiwan in 2026?

Yun Sun: So far, a fundamental reason Xi has not used force against Taiwan is that it is uncertain such an operation can succeed. This question of success has always depended on how the United States would respond to a Chinese attack. China is now convinced that it is unlikely to see a U.S. president more indifferent toward Taiwan and more unlikely to intervene militarily in the Taiwan Strait than Donald Trump. The recently released U.S. National Security Strategy, which prioritizes the Western Hemisphere and proclaims a “predisposition to non-interventionism,” supports this perception since it forgoes any designation of China as a threat or a challenge to the United States. The Trump administration’s mostly muted response to China’s December 2025 military exercise encircling Taiwan was also encouraging. Then, in early January, Trump’s decision to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro confirmed the United States’ Western Hemisphere priorities…