Tensions rise as Iran’s hard-liners flex muscle with U-turn over Hormuz and ship attacks

New York Times: Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps on Saturday declared it was closing the Strait of Hormuz, the nation’s state media said, shortly after two Indian-flagged ships reported coming under fire while they were trying to pass through.

Just a day before, the Iranian foreign minister said it was reopened, according to state media. President Trump also said the strait was open but left in place an American blockade on ships from Iranian ports. That seemed to raise the ire of the Guards, who said Saturday the strait would remain closed until the U.S. lifted its blockade…

Iran’s Hard-Liners Flex Their Muscle With a U-Turn Over Hormuz

Iran’s quick reversal of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has laid bare a rift between the country’s political leaders and the military hard-liners who have deepened their hold on the government since the war began.

…The public display of division points to the difficulty ahead as President Trump tries to nail down concessions that would allow him to end the war with a clear win…

LNG Tankers Make U-Turns From Hormuz as Iran Keeps Strait Shut

Five LNG tankers — that loaded up in Qatar before being stranded in the Persian Gulf for more than a month — halted their journeys toward the western opening of the strait, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg…

For Iran, Flexing Control Over Waterway Is New Deterrent

Iran could thus emerge from the conflict with a blueprint for its hard-line theocratic government to keep its adversaries at bay, regardless of any restrictions on its nuclear program.

“Everyone now knows that if there is a conflict in the future, closing the strait will be the first thing in the Iranian textbook,” said Danny Citrinowicz, a former head of the Iran branch of Israel’s military intelligence agency and now a fellow at the Atlantic Council. “You cannot beat geography.”…

How Iran’s Cheap, Low-Tech Drones Have Cost the U.S.

Iranian drones, made with commercial-grade technology, cost roughly $35,000 to produce. That is a fraction of the cost of the high-tech military interceptors sometimes used to shoot them down…

How 24 hours of whiplash over the Strait of Hormuz unfolded

Trump insisted again on Saturday that talks with Iran are going very well, but that the US would not give in to blackmail. Iran’s powerful national security council said that Tehran was reviewing “new proposals” from the US but was yet to respond.

Besides navigation through the strait, the two sides remain far apart on the surrender and removal of Iran’s highly enriched uranium, and the ongoing enrichment program…

Behind Trump’s Public Bravado on the War, He Grapples With His Own Fears

The president’s impulsive style has never before been tested during a sustained military conflict. Unlike the successful operation in Venezuela, which buoyed his confidence, Trump is confronting a more intractable foe in Iran, which is so far unwilling to bend to his demands. 

“We are witnessing astonishing military successes that do not add up to victory and that is squarely on the president and how he’s chosen to do his job—lack of attention to detail and lack of planning,” said Kori Schake, a senior fellow at the right-leaning think tank American Enterprise Institute who served on former President George W. Bush’s National Security Council…

How Iran has been studying lessons from the war in Ukraine

“The Russia-Ukraine war was one of the cases that we examined carefully,” Dadvand said. “One of the most important points in that war was the widespread use of small drones and artificial intelligence. We are witnessing the entry of advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum, and nano into the military arena.”…

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